黃崢發(fā)布2020年度致股東信：新的世界正在到來，新的物種必然出現(xiàn)

北京時間4月25日凌晨，拼多多發(fā)布2019財年年報，披露財年各項完整運營數(shù)據(jù)。年報顯示，2019年拼多多實現(xiàn)成交額10066億元，平臺年活躍買家數(shù)達5.852億，年營收301.4億元。從用戶數(shù)看，創(chuàng)立4年半的拼多多已經(jīng)成為中國第二大電商平臺。

拼多多創(chuàng)始人、董事長兼CEO黃崢隨同年報發(fā)布了股東信，這是2018年以來黃崢連續(xù)發(fā)布的第三封年度致股東信。

在信中，黃崢談?wù)摿私谝咔閹Ыo自己的思考，從疫情與世界、人類與時間的關(guān)系角度，重新思考當(dāng)下面對的現(xiàn)實。

黃崢認為，當(dāng)這個微小的病毒進入人類世界時，它就像試管中的催化劑一樣，加速了新世界的形成。過去世界的某些維度在被重構(gòu)，一些規(guī)則也在被改寫，這股席卷全球的力量將從根本上永久地改變我們所生存的世界。

 “我們假設(shè)每個物體的過去的所有歷史都已經(jīng)被其當(dāng)前狀態(tài)所完全包含，并且每個物體都是獨立的，但疫情開始讓人懷疑這一假設(shè)是否正確”，黃崢表示。

“如果概率和隨機性本來就是每個物體的天然屬性呢？如果大量的物體在本質(zhì)上就是相互交織和關(guān)聯(lián)的呢？”黃崢認為，由于物體存在這些內(nèi)在聯(lián)系，試圖屏蔽物體之間的關(guān)聯(lián)的方法就不再能夠那么有效。

▲ 截至2019年底，拼多多年活躍買家數(shù)達5.852億，已成為中國第二大電商平臺。

此前，拼多多宣布與國美達成全面戰(zhàn)略合作，拼多多戰(zhàn)略副總裁九鼎表示，此次合作是平臺踐行“普惠、人為先、更開放”新消費理念的最新一步。

在2019年，拼多多遭遇了競爭對手持續(xù)發(fā)起的史上最大規(guī)模的“二選一”。在上一封股東信中，黃崢也曾表示，長期獨家排他是必然會被打破的，不符合商業(yè)邏輯和自然規(guī)律。

2019年，隨著拼多多在社交拼團、市縣長直播等模式創(chuàng)新，并通過獨創(chuàng)的百億補貼活動直接為消費者創(chuàng)造價值，年報顯示，當(dāng)前拼多多的商家數(shù)已從360萬增長至510萬。

因此，黃崢認為，一個全新的人類世界正在到來，新物種將會以和從前完全不一樣的樣子在新的土壤中孕育和生長。

而關(guān)于未來，黃崢表示，人類曾經(jīng)將時間視為方程式中的可逆參數(shù)，但疫情把人類從幻夢中驚醒，時間更像是一個不可逆的向量，“無論我們多么固執(zhí)地渴求著對稱和永恒，時間總是在不斷制造著世間種種的不對稱、不可逆以及死亡”。

因此，“我們需要證明我們這一代人的與時俱進和與以往不同，我們將更加堅定地投資未來，努力建設(shè)面前的新世界”。

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黃崢致股東信中文全文

What time? 

今夕何夕？

今年2月，COVID-19作為一個新詞匯在全球家喻戶曉，并顛覆了我們的日常生活。就在我書寫這封信的時刻，世界上仍有一半的人蝸居家中，無助地等待著引發(fā)全球危機的小小病毒盡快消失。等待之初，我們急切盼望生活能夠重回正軌；而越來越漫長的等待，則讓我們逐漸忘記了時間。

今天，我們正身處怎樣的時間之中？時間又究竟是什么？

對人類來說，這是一個危機的時刻，流言和混亂四起，人們因不同的理念意見而產(chǎn)生分裂，甚至是對抗。這是一個百年不遇的特殊時刻，不過也許它也只不過是歷史長河中一個再平常不過的片刻。

病毒是大自然向人類派出的危險“信使”。出于生存本能，我們竭盡所能地調(diào)動自身的機體能量與之對抗。這種對抗的副產(chǎn)品是傷及自身甚至致命。很快，激戰(zhàn)從單個生物體蔓延至整個社會有機體，不同大小不同類型的公司、政府和國家，都在用自己的方式對抗這一威脅，其副產(chǎn)品也是不可避免地傷及自身。

這一切只是源于一個幾乎看不見，離開宿主都無法復(fù)制的病毒。一個攜帶了一些信息（RNA）和很少能量的小小“信使”而已。這和數(shù)十年來我們擔(dān)憂的原子能威脅形成了鮮明的對比。一朵可以升騰出巨大能量的烏云，與自身幾乎毫無能量的“信使”，誰會給人類造成更大、更持久的危害？

這真是如幻如夢…… 這是大自然給我們的一個啟示？一個教導(dǎo)？抑或是對我們的懲罰，還是救贖？也許，僅僅是大自然和人類開的一個小小的玩笑？ 

Time for new

新生之時

當(dāng)愛因斯坦寫下他著名的方程式 時，他優(yōu)雅地（某種意義上，也可以說是傲慢地）描繪了他腦海中的物質(zhì)世界。但他并沒有解釋那描繪物質(zhì)世界的精神世界與客觀物質(zhì)世界之間的關(guān)系，也沒有解釋能量與信息之間的關(guān)系。

今天，全世界都處在一種常規(guī)的反常中。成萬上億的人被迫困在家中，與親朋好友分離。然而，我們又同時通過某種精神和情感連結(jié)在一起。這種關(guān)系也影響著我們所能感知到的物理世界。虛擬世界和物理世界之間的邊界前所未有地模糊，我們開始看到（而不僅僅是想象）一個新的世界正在走來?；蛘撸珳实卣f，是一個全新的人類世界正在走來。在這個新世界中，“虛擬現(xiàn)實”一詞已經(jīng)過時?，F(xiàn)實和虛擬可以相互轉(zhuǎn)換，現(xiàn)實變得虛幻，虛幻卻是現(xiàn)實一種。同樣，人類物質(zhì)與精神需求之間的分別也愈發(fā)模糊。

當(dāng)這個微小的病毒進入人類世界時，它就像試管中的催化劑一樣，加速了新世界的形成。過去世界的某些維度在被重構(gòu)，一些規(guī)則也在被改寫。這股席卷全球的力量將從根本上永久地改變我們所生存的世界。就像我在前面兩封致股東信中解釋“拼多多的誕生”時所述，新物種將會以和從前完全不一樣的樣子在新的土壤中孕育和生長?，F(xiàn)在，正是世界萌發(fā)新生，重新構(gòu)建的時候。

Feel the time 

感受時間

1. Time with an arrow/direction 

時間的方向

人類一直努力地用我們所掌握的邏輯和原理，試圖理解和控制世界。在許多事情上，我們確實成功過，比如科學(xué)。在科學(xué)的世界里，我們試圖從客觀物質(zhì)世界里抽離出來，以超然的上帝視角來進行“客觀”的觀察、理解，并通過有限的方程式來定義這個客觀物質(zhì)世界。在這樣的框架中，時間變成了方程式 -t = (-)t 中的一個可逆參數(shù)。它只是描述物體在按預(yù)定軌跡運動的方程式中的一個參數(shù)而已。

但是，當(dāng)一個渺小的病毒把我們從幻夢中驚醒，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)人類并沒有凌駕于世界之上，僅僅是這個被觀察的世界中的一個可忽略不計的組成部分而已。我們唯一能做的，是停下手中的一切，等待時間流逝，感受時間流過的痕跡。

我們進而意識到，時間很可能不應(yīng)該是方程式中的一個可逆參數(shù)，它更像是一個不可逆的向量。它是一股強大的有方向的力量，默默地驅(qū)動著我們所見所感的一切事物。無論我們多么固執(zhí)地渴求著對稱和永恒，時間總是在不斷制造著世間種種的不對稱、不可逆以及死亡。

熱力學(xué)第一定律（?U = Q-W）給予了我們一定的控制感和確定性，而熱力學(xué)第二定律（?S> = 0）又使我們謙卑地認識到有另外一種存在，在力和質(zhì)量組成的物理世界之外。熵（S）與信息有關(guān)，我不確定熵是否連接著精神世界，但它確實可以幫助我感受和理解時間。時間不應(yīng)該只是物理世界里一個可逆的變量，或是孤立的存在于精神的想象，沉默而永不停息的它更像是在物質(zhì)和精神世界表象背后的那股強大的有方向的不可逆的驅(qū)動力。

2. Time, crowd and uncertainty 

時間、人群和不確定性

當(dāng)牛頓最早揭示F = M（dV / dT）時，它讓我們有了“可以控制世界”的錯覺，或至少給了我們可以掌控力量的某些理解和暗示。我們不再感到擔(dān)心，因為每個物體都可由其位置、質(zhì)量、速度和作用力來計算出軌跡。我們假設(shè)每個物體的過去的所有歷史都已經(jīng)被其當(dāng)前狀態(tài)所完全包含，并且每個物體都是獨立的。在這樣的假設(shè)下，大量物體之間的大量交互隨著時間的推移將變得愈發(fā)復(fù)雜、混亂，也會表現(xiàn)得不確定和隨機。時間之矢好像創(chuàng)造了混亂和不確定。而所謂概率，是對大量相互作用下的確定性的物體的軌跡集合的一個近似統(tǒng)計描述。

但是，當(dāng)我們被隔離在家中，在焦慮和不安的情緒中等待時，我們開始懷疑“每個物體之間的相互獨立性”是否真的是我們在試圖理解和解釋世界時的一個正確的假設(shè)。在我們對確定性的渴望中，我們選擇性地接受了諸如“物體間的獨立性”這樣的簡單假設(shè)，以幫助我們解釋復(fù)雜的世界。我們的渴望是如此的強烈以至于讓我們開始相信這就是真理。

但是，如果概率和隨機性本來就是每個物體的天然屬性呢？如果大量的物體在本質(zhì)上就是相互交織和關(guān)聯(lián)的呢？就像我們的人類社會一樣，無論每個個體有多獨立，我們都在真實和虛擬的世界中，通過相互關(guān)聯(lián)而定義自我的存在。由于物體存在這些內(nèi)在聯(lián)系，試圖屏蔽物體之間的關(guān)聯(lián)，研究孤立個體的方法也就不再能夠那么有效。相反，我們看到，時間推移下的個體間大量互動反而成為一種為社會和世界帶來秩序和確定性的力量。我們再一次感受到了時間的力量和魔力。

Seize the time 

把握今朝

當(dāng)新型冠狀病毒席卷全球時，每個機體都不得不面對大自然帶來的殘酷挑戰(zhàn)。相對年輕的人或許心存一些僥幸與慰藉。這并不是說我們要在“?！敝杏懬傻美?。任何妄圖趁人之危或利用漏洞使自身受益的想法，在時間面前顯得異常愚蠢，無異于一個狂妄的賭徒試圖在賭場上贏過時間。

相反，我們感受到了需要更加努力工作的沖動和動力。這是因為我們比以往任何時候都更理解和珍惜寶貴的青春。我們越發(fā)意識到我們應(yīng)盡的責(zé)任。我們需要證明我們這一代人的與時俱進和與以往不同。在這個新世界中，新物種和新生物必將誕生并茁壯成長。

大自然的蓬勃發(fā)展和趨勢不會因為任何個人意志而改變。理解這些自然規(guī)則不應(yīng)該讓我們感到優(yōu)越，更不可能讓我們有能力統(tǒng)治自然。相反，這使我們能夠謙卑地認識和承認，我們只不過是世界自然演變過程中的滄海一粟罷了。

恰如一位詩人寫道：“我冷眼向過去稍稍回顧，只見它曲折灌溉的悲喜，都消失在一片亙古的荒漠。這才知道我的全部努力，不過完成了普通的生活?！?/p>

帶著這樣的視角，我們既感到無比的謙卑和平靜，又無比感恩于擁有的寶貴青春和擔(dān)負著的重大責(zé)任。因此，我們將更加堅定地投資未來，努力建設(shè)面前的新世界。在這新世界中，我們的美好旅程才剛剛開始。

黃崢
謹代表拼多多
2020年4月20日

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黃崢致股東信原文

What time? 

In February, the world learned a new word, “COVID-19”, which upended our lives. As I write this, half of the world remains confined at home, waiting for the tiny virus that causes COVID-19 to leave us. During the early days of the outbreak, as we waited in solidarity, we eagerly hoped to return to normal. But as the world has been put on hold week after week, we start to forget time.

We cannot help but ask ourselves, what is the time we are in now and what is time?

We are in a time of crisis – of division, misinformation, and chaos. The virus has caused countless conflicts and contrasts as we watch the news around us and worldwide. It is an unprecedented time to most of us. Yet if we put it in the context of the human history, it might just be a normal incident, a drop in the ocean.

This virus is a messenger by Mother Nature. Out of self-protection and preservation, our bodies desperately fought it using all the strength and energy available. Soon enough, the war against this seemingly unstoppable virus extended from our own bodies to the broader organisms that make up our society (if we see every institution as a living organism made up of people and relationships with a mission and purpose). Companies, governments, countries, big and small, are all scrambling in their own ways to combat this life-threatening virus. In these attempts, we possibly have unintentionally introduced more damage to ourselves. 

These all started with an almost invisible virus, a tiny messenger carrying some information (RNA) and a negligible amount of energy that, independent of a host, cannot even replicate. It is in stark contrast with nuclear threat, the power we feared for decades. Which is more capable of greater and more prolonged damage to our human society then - a mushroom cloud representing massive destructive energy, or a “messenger” with virtually no energy?

We cannot help but wonder if this is a lesson purposefully delivered, a punishment, a redemption, or simple irony? No matter what it is, it is surreal to me.

Time for new

When Einstein wrote down his famous , he elegantly (in some sense also arrogantly) depicted a physical world in his mind. However, what he did not explain in his theory of relativity is the relationship between the human mind and the physical world, nor the relationship between energy and information.  

Today, in this bizarre time, millions of people are staying at home, physically cut off from their families and friends. Yet we are connected and unified in spirit through shared sentiment, which in turn affects the physical world. The boundaries between the virtual and physical worlds are unprecedentedly blurred, and we are beginning to see (not just envision) a new world. In this new world, the phrase “virtual reality” is obsolete. Reality has become virtual and virtual has become part of reality. Similarly, the distinction between humanity’s physical needs and spiritual needs is also becoming vague.

When this tiny virus was dropped into our world, it acted just like a catalyst in a test tube, accelerating the formation of a whole new world. Inevitably, some dimensions of the previous world are being restructured, some rules are being rewritten. The impact of this sweeping force will fundamentally and permanently change the world we are in now. Just like what I explained in the previous shareholder letters about PDD’s formation, new models are bound to emerge and grow in a whole new setup. We are indeed seeing the phasing out of some as new ones emerge. It is the time of reestablishment.

Feel the time 

3. Time with an arrow/direction 

Human beings have long used reason to try to understand and control the world. In many cases, we succeeded, for example, science. In science, we strive to detach ourselves from the physical world we are in, to watch it as if we are a higher being “objectively” observing, understanding, and defining the world into a finite number of equations. In this framework, time is a reversible parameter in the equation -t = (-)t. It is merely a parameter in an equation to describe a predetermined trajectory of an object.

However, when an almost invisible virus awoken us to the reality that we are not above the world, but just a negligible part of the world to be observed, the only thing we can do is to sit still and let time carry its course. We then realize time is not really a parameter in an equation, but an irreversible vector. It is a silent and relentless directional force driving everything we see and feel. It effortlessly creates asymmetry, irreversibility and mortality, no matter how stubbornly and desperately we yearn for symmetry and immortality. 

While the first law of thermodynamics (?U = Q-W) gives us a sense of control and certainty, the second law (?S ≥ 0) humbles us to acknowledge the unknown beyond just force and mass we used to define our physical world. Entropy (S) also relates to information. I am not sure if entropy relates to the spiritual world, but it does help us feel and comprehend time. Again, it is not a reversible parameter, but a silent and irreversible driving force beyond and behind both the physical and the spiritual world.

4. Time, crowd and uncertainty 

When Newton revealed F=M(dV/dT), it gave us a delusive sense of control, or at least it allowed our wishful thinking that we can finally harness force. We no longer have to worry, because every object has a calculable trajectory determined by its position, mass, velocity and force. We assume each object’s current state fully encompasses and explains its past and that each object is independent. With that, large number of interactions among large number of objects over time would increase complexity and appear chaotic and uncertain, hence probabilistic. It seems that time has created this chaos and uncertainty. And probability is just a statistical aggregation of the trajectories of a large number of objects.

However, when we are isolated at home, waiting with anxiety and unsettling emotions, we start to doubt whether the notion of each object being independent is really a valid assumption in our attempt to understand and explain the world. In our yearning for certainty, we have conveniently chosen to accept some assumptions, such as independence among each object, that can help us explain the world. Our desire for certainty is so strong that we start believing it is truth.

But what if probability is a fundamental feature of each object, rather than a result of statistical aggregation? What if the large number of objects is intrinsically intertwined and interrelated? Just like our human society, no matter how independent each individual is, we are intrinsically connected both physically and spiritually. And these connections define who we are and our existence.

Because of these connections, the divide-and-conquer approach is no longer effective to reduce uncertainty. Instead, we see the large number of interactions among individuals over time becoming a force that brings order and certainty to the society. Again, we feel the force and magic of time. 

Seize the time 

When COVID-19 swept the earth, every organism was confronted with the brutal reality of Mother Nature. Some of us who are relatively young cannot help but to feel grateful and lucky. This is not to say that we see an opportunity to take advantage of during the crisis. In fact, I despise the saying “don’t waste a crisis”. A crisis is a crisis. Nobody can come out as a winner in the midst of a catastrophe. Any wishful thinking to capture the ‘opportunities’ (or exploiting loopholes) to benefit oneself seems foolish in the face of time. It is akin to a presumptuous gambler trying to outsmart time at a casino.  

Instead, we feel the urge to work even harder. Because we, more than ever, understand and appreciate how precious youth is. More than ever, we realize that we now have our duty to fulfil. We need to demonstrate that our generation is innovative and different, that in this new world, new species and new creatures are bound to emerge and grow. Mother Nature will flourish and progress, regardless of any individual’s will. Understanding these rules of nature does not make us feel superior, nor does it give us the power to rule and order. On the contrary, it humbles us to admit that we are just part of a natural evolution of the world. One poet captured it all: “As I silently look back, all the sorrows and joy, all the twists and turns, of life, vanished like sands in the desert. And now I know, all I have accomplished, is just a part of life.” 

With this perspective and in this new world, we feel humble and calm. We are tremendously grateful for our precious youth, and we feel the weight of our duty. As a result, we will be more than ever committed to investing in the future, and to be part of the driving force to the new world we are seeing. The journey has only started.

This is our Carpe Diem. This is our C’est La Vie.

生成海報

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