調(diào)研：軟件公司收購(gòu)額節(jié)節(jié)攀升 其動(dòng)因是什么？

譯者：張?zhí)K月

2016年被人們視為資本寒冬的一年，然而軟件公司的收購(gòu)卻呈現(xiàn)出價(jià)高的趨勢(shì)，究其原因則是企業(yè)模式變革的需要所致。

人們常說(shuō)2016年是資本進(jìn)入寒冬期的一年。這一年主要的資本投資在第三季度下降了55%。IPO市場(chǎng)也呈現(xiàn)兩個(gè)完全不同的景象，一方面一些公司能夠上市，達(dá)到估值標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，但這個(gè)數(shù)量還是少之又少。另一方面，并購(gòu)活動(dòng)似乎很活躍，僅在過(guò)去的9個(gè)月中就有30多個(gè)超十億美元的收購(gòu)案發(fā)生。那么，所有這些因素混合在一起會(huì)對(duì)今天的并購(gòu)環(huán)境產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響？其相較于歷史的規(guī)模又是如何？

收購(gòu)現(xiàn)象呈價(jià)高量少的趨勢(shì)

2016年至今，軟件公司收購(gòu)總計(jì)已經(jīng)達(dá)到540億美元了。2016年的速度足以趕上過(guò)去三年的軟件收購(gòu)趨勢(shì)了，從640 – 700億美元不等。然而，收購(gòu)的總數(shù)可能會(huì)下降40%，從平均每年的150起下降到92起。也就是說(shuō)收購(gòu)數(shù)量降低，收購(gòu)價(jià)格卻升高。

從上圖可以看出，在過(guò)去的六年中，一家軟件公司的平均收購(gòu)價(jià)格在4千萬(wàn)美元到8千萬(wàn)美元之間，而2016年則達(dá)到6千萬(wàn)美元。

另一方面，軟件收購(gòu)在2010年之前達(dá)到約2.5億美元的穩(wěn)定收購(gòu)價(jià)格后在2016年已經(jīng)沖到平均10億美元。

最大的收購(gòu)金額到底能達(dá)到多少？

這是因?yàn)橐?guī)模最大的收購(gòu)仍然在繼續(xù)增加。而本世紀(jì)初，最大的軟件收購(gòu)從40億美元到80億美元不等，在過(guò)去的四年中，規(guī)模最小的收購(gòu)是80億美元，最大則達(dá)到290億美元。

有趣的是，收購(gòu)總額并沒(méi)有像預(yù)期的在SaaS公司減少57%的倍數(shù)上大大提高。在過(guò)去的幾個(gè)月里，收購(gòu)估值倍數(shù)呈現(xiàn)出先降后升的趨勢(shì)，均值達(dá)到5.0，與2014年初的平均值5.45非常接近。

總之，最大的收購(gòu)仍然在繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。照這樣下去，預(yù)計(jì)今后每個(gè)公司也都將成為軟件公司，這種根本性的變革是由于現(xiàn)代企業(yè)想要改變傳統(tǒng)的模式而進(jìn)行大規(guī)模收購(gòu)所導(dǎo)致的。

原文

How Big Is A Typical Software Company Acquisition?

TOMASZ TUNGUZ

2016 has been a volatile year. Major capital investments fell 55% in Q3. The IPO market is a tale of two cities with some companies able to go public and catapult their valuations, but the overall number remains in the single digits. Last, M&A activity seems quite brisk with more than 30 $1B+ billion acquisitions in the last nine months alone. How do all these factors commingle to influence today’s acquisition environment? And how does it compare historically?

Year to date, $54B worth of software companies have been acquired. 2016 is on pace to match the past three years of software acquisition trends which vary from $64B-$70B. However, in 2016 the total number of acquisitions will likely fall by 40% from an average of 150 per year to 92. Fewer acquisitions at higher prices.

Over the course of those six years, the median acquisition price of a software company has varied between $40M and $80M and in 2016 has settled to about $60M.

On the other hand, the average software acquisition is hurtling toward $1 billion in value after having plateaued around $250M earlier in the decade.

That’s because the very largest acquisitions continue to increase in size. Whereas earlier in the decade, the largest software acquisitions varied from $4 to $8B, in the last four years, the smallest maximum acquisition is $8B and the largest is $29B.

Interestingly, the total value of acquisitions hasn’t increased dramatically as one might have expected given the 57% reduction in multiples of SaaS companies in particular. Over the last few months we seen a reversion to the mean of about 5x forward revenues compared to recent highs of 7.7x (in early 2014) and lows of 3.2.

In summary, the very largest acquisitions continue to grow larger,. Every company is becoming a software company and the transformational change that as a Service software delivery challenges incumbents to pivot their businesses to new models, often in the form of very large acquisitions.

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